Young renters unleashed upon London for the first time tend to flock to the popular party hubs of Clapham, Brixton and Hackney, eager to be as central as rents will allow.
But when it comes to getting on the ladder or buying that first family home, many are forced to to fan out in search of an area in which they can afford to become owners, not tenants.
This momentum of migration creates “catch 22 boroughs”: gentrifying areas where a sustained increase in demand drives up values, eventually rendering them unaffordable for the next generation.
New research from the property group JLL has identified London’s locations of the moment, where prices are on track to breach the £500,000 threshold by 2020.
The seven areas next in line to join the 14 that already have an average value of over half a million pounds are Brent, Kingston-upon-Thames, Ealing, Tower Hamlets, Harrow, Bromley and Waltham Forest.
“House price inflation has accelerated ahead of wages, making buying in what was already the most expensive area of the UK – central London – even further from the reach of the aspiring home owner,” says JLL analyst Nick Whitten. He has also calculated the affordability ratio of each borough, taking in the ratio of the average house price and median salary.
But it’s not just about affordability. So what else do these property hotspots have to offer?
Brent
Brent includes areas such as leafy Queen’s Park, Kilburn and Harlesden, but the borough-wide increment in house prices is a direct result of the huge regeneration project around Wembley Stadium.
The development firm Quintain bought the concrete wasteland around the stadium and the arena in 2002, promising to deliver 5,000 new homes. Apartments in two concierge-run towers went on sale in 2009 and 2010, bringing some luxury to the area, and the show suite is available to view in what will be the 425-home Emerald Gardens.
Quintain improved the walkways around the three stations, Wembley Park, Wembley Central and Wembley Stadium, and created three new parks. With the London Designer Outlet came shops, restaurants and a nine-screen cinema generating 1,000 new jobs.
“Brent has fantastic transport connections into central London but was traditionally overlooked in favour of more desirable locations,” says Whitten. “Regeneration investment around Wembley and demand for locations on the edge of central London such as Queen’s Park has put house prices under serious pressure over recent years.”
On the market: A three-bedroom house with a big back garden near Wembley is £499,950 with Foxtons.
Current affordability ratio: 16
Average house price will hit £501,391 by December 2016
Kingston-upon-Thames
Kingston sits on the south bank of the Thames before it snakes out west into Surrey. The buzzing suburb has a cinema complex and shopping centre, with a John Lewis and Bentalls.
The German school in neighbouring Petersham attracts some overseas families and Chinese buyers are snapping up the new riverside apartments, but the local market is predominantly powered by domestic purchasers and families who settle in the rows of Victorian terraces.
“Prices fell less here in 2008-09 compared to central London because we’re not subject to the vagaries of the international market,” says Peter Knowles of Hamptons International. “But you’ll still get twice the house for half the price compared to Wimbledon or Richmond.”
Families move to Kingston to safeguard a decent education for their children, he says. “All our primary schools are outstanding and a new academy has just opened.”
On the market: A two-bedroom garden flat is £375,000 with Foxtons.
Current affordability ratio: 13
Average house price will hit £524,108 by December 2017
Ealing
Crossrail has transformed the perception of Ealing to families and property speculators alike, says Paul Daniel of Hamptons International.When the Elizabeth Line opens in December 2018, the journey time from Ealing Broadway to Bond Street will be halved by to 11 minutes.
Transport was just one factor when wealth manager and entrepreneur Katie Owen moved her family from Forest Hill in south London to the villagey area of Hanwell three years ago.
“Although we loved Forest Hill, my husband works in Park Royal and our relatives live out west or in the West Midlands,” she says. They also wanted more room to house their growing family (they now have two young boys) and space for Owen to start her business, Sargasso Grey, making bespoke heels for wide feet.
However, her price point took her to Hanwell, a small town in the south of the borough.
“I knew nothing about Hanwell but the train takes 15 minutes to Paddington and because it doesn’t have a Tube stop, prices were a lot lower,” she explains. “We live by Brent Lodge Park with two playgrounds, a maze and a zoo. It ticked all the boxes for us.”
They bought a five-bedroom semi-detached house, in need of renovation, with an 180ft garden, for just over £700,000.
On the market: A one-bedroom period flat is £435,000 with KFH.
Current affordability ratio: 16
Average house price will hit £511,287 by December 2017
Tower Hamlets
To the east of the City, Tower Hamlets includes areas such as Canary Wharf, Whitechapel and Bow and borders the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park.
Two different regenerative forces have been at work over the past decade, explains Whitten: the Olympic effect has spilt over from neighbouring Stratford while, independently, London moves east.
“By 2030 half of all of London’s population growth will be to the east of the capital,” he says, “and the residential revolution at Canary Wharf is at the heart of that.”
Among the new towers is the 60-floor Newfoundland apartment block, which will house 560 luxury flats, and an unnamed 20-acre scheme, which will boast 3,200 homes.
Whitten cites Old Street as the new financial technology hub of the world, dragging people in that direction in search of jobs.
In the meantime, it’s affordable and Crossrail arrives in 2018.
On the market: A one-bedroom flat in a new development on hip Fish Island, minutes from well-connected Stratford, is £419,000 with CBRE.
Current affordability ratio: 13
Average house price will hit £512,031 by December 2018
Harrow
Harrow, home to Stanmore (the end of the Jubliee Line), is the gateway to the desirable commuter belt of Hertfordshire. Many Londoners start their search for more space in the popular county but, on finding it’s too expensive, discover Harrow.
It could be the best of both worlds for those going in that direction, says Whitten. The train journey takes just 12 minutes from Marylebone to Harrow-on-the-Hill, the smartest area of the borough surrounding Harrow School.
One, two and three-bedroom apartments in Redrow’s new Lyon Square start from £365,000 to £650,000 and Persimmon has bagged permission to transform the Kodak plant into a housing scheme.
On the market: £454,900 will get you a three-bedroom duplex near Harrow-on-the-Hill with Woodward.
Current affordability ratio: 14
Average house price will hit £500,147 by December 2018
Bromley
The wave of demand for property in Bromley came in 2014 when it was “discovered by Londoners moving out”, says Theresa Hiscoke, branch manager at Alan de Maid.
“We now have a really strong first-time buyer market and a lot of people following their friends. They can get a three-bedroom semi for the price of a one-bedroom flat in neighbouring Dulwich.”
The High Street, which once lost trade to the nearby Bluewater shopping complex, has built itself back up with an array of high-end and independent shops.
There’s a theatre, good primary and secondary schools and trains that run into Waterloo East, Charing Cross, Victoria and London Bridge.
On the market: Alan de Maid has a three-bedroom flat with off-street parking for £365,000.
Current affordability ratio: 12
Average house price will hit £509,823 by December 2019
Waltham Forest
Waltham Forest runs from the top of Stratford up to Chingford with Walthamstow at its centre. The trendy Orford Road runs through the middle of what has been dubbed “Waltham Village”, and with delis, local breweries and bric-a-brac shops it’s certainly a different E17 from the one that inspired the Nineties band.
Walthamstow is benefiting from what Foxtons’ Daren Haysom calls a two-pronged attack. London’s young renters who cannot afford to buy in Muswell Hill or Crouch End are heading out, while buyers are venturing in from the likes of Loughton in Essex.
“The area was previously ignored and downtrodden but that’s changing fast,” he says.
On the market: A ground-floor three-bedroom flat with a large garden is on the market with Foxtons for £475,000.
Current affordability ratio: 15
Average house price will hit £503,765 by December 2019
Reference: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/the-next-hot-london-boroughs-where-and-when-will-average-house-p/
Image: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/the-next-hot-london-boroughs-where-and-when-will-average-house-p/