House prices: Market resilient in first post-Brexit month

23/08/2016

Housing market activity remained robust in the first full month since the Brexit vote, according to HMRC.

 

Official figures provisionally record 104,200 completed property purchases in July - 0.7 per cent more than the total for June. 

 

On a seasonally-adjusted basis - adjusting the figures based on the number of working days in a month - there was a slight decline of around 0.9 per cent, in line with the dip recorded by the likes of Halifax and estate agency Haart earlier this month.

 

Either way, it is a far cry from the predictions that activity would fall off a cliff after the unexpected Leave victory. 

 

HMRC's figures relate to completed transactions so contain an inherent lag relative to when purchases were agreed. Consequently, while it shows few buyers are pulling out of deals, mortgage approval data is more indicative of the current mood.

 

But here, too, is evidence of resilience. The British Bankers' Association (BBA) revealed yesterday that 37,622 mortgages were approved by high street banks in July, down around five per cent from 39,763 in June and the lowest figure for 18 months, reports City AM.

 

The overall value of approvals, however, rose six per cent year-on-year, driven by a spate of remortgaging at a time of low interest rates, says Financial Reporter

"The data does not currently suggest borrowing patterns have been significantly affected by the Brexit vote," Dr Rebecca Harding, BBA's chief economist, said.

 

If all that is encouraging for homeowners and continues a trend of more optimistic reports, the BBA did warn house prices are expected to "ease back" in the months ahead, as the fallout from the referendum hits confidence.

 

"The fundamentals for house buyers look likely to soften over the coming months with unemployment rising and purchasing power softening. Unemployment will probably move higher as business react to a more uncertain and worrying outlook," it said.

 

The BBA expects prices to dip three per cent to the end of 2016, meaning they would still be higher for the year as a whole, and then to fall by around five per cent in 2017.

 

 

Reference: http://www.theweek.co.uk/house-prices/61987/house-prices-should-hold-firm-this-year-says-ubs

 

Image: http://www.theweek.co.uk/house-prices/61987/house-prices-should-hold-firm-this-year-says-ubs

 


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